基于二元混合随机过程的光纤跳线剩余寿命预测OA

Since a traditional single stochastic process model is difficult to accurately describe the degradation trend of optical fi-ber patch cords during high-temperature accelerated aging,a reliability assessment and remaining useful life prediction method based on a bivariate hybrid stochastic process is proposed.This method establishes a joint degradation model for insertion loss and return loss using a nonlinear Wiener process and a nonlinear Gamma process.The model parameters are estimated using an adaptive differential evolution algorithm,and the correlation between the two performance parameters is characterized by a Copula function.Experimental analysis shows that,compared with the single-performance degradation model based on the Wie-ner process,the joint degradation model exhibits higher reliability and conservativeness in reliability assessment.