霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻对全球天然气市场的冲击与中长期影响OACHSSCD

In late February 2026,the outbreak of hostilities among the United States,Israel,and Iran caused severe disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,triggering the largest supply interruption in the global LNG market since the Ukraine crisis in 2022.This event,however,constitutes a systemic shock that goes beyond the scope of conventional single-risk projections,and is characterized by an intensifying impact over time.The delay of Qatar's North Field Expansion Project will significantly postpone the anticipated period of global LNG supply abundance,the marked divergence in vulnerability among global natural gas buyers would accelerate the restructuring of both global LNG trade flows and pricing mechanisms,the event will also spur upstream LNG capacity expansion,accelerate downstream energy transition,and simultaneously facilitate a reassessment of the strategic value of pipeline gas.It offers such implications and suggestions for enhancing China's natural gas supply security mechanism as improving the comprehensive security assessment framework covering supply sources,transit routes,infrastructure,and geopolitical risks,actively and prudently advancing the construction of overland transnational gas pipelines,and further refining China's emergency gas reserve system and regional coordination mechanisms.