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1958-2023年内蒙古植被干旱时空特征与驱动因素分析OA

Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of vegetation drought in Inner Mongolia from 1958 to 2023

中文摘要英文摘要

干旱作为内蒙古常见的极端气候事件之一,不仅导致农作物减产,还会引发草场退化,严重威胁区域生态环境稳定和农业生产安全.为明晰干旱的时空演变特征及其驱动机制,基于作物缺水指数(CWSI),分析1958-2023年内蒙古植被干旱的时空分布特征、变化趋势及其驱动因素,并进一步探讨CWSI对主要驱动因子的时滞效应.结果表明:(1)内蒙古多年平均CWSI的分布特征存在明显的空间异质性,呈现西南高、东北低的特点;1958-2023年CWSI呈单调增加趋势的区域占比达70.5%;突变集中发生在2000年左右,其中1998年最为显著.(2)降水和气温是内蒙古植被干旱的主要驱动因素;多因子交互下,降水和气温交互作用q值几乎均在0.8以上.(3)内蒙古CW-SI对降水的响应存在平均1.61个月的滞后,对气温响应的滞后时间更短,平均为1.33个月.研究结果可为内蒙古干旱监测提供理论基础与技术支撑.

Drought is among the most prevalent extreme climate events in Inner Mongolia,China,resulting in di-minished crop yields and the degradation of grasslands.This phenomenon poses a significant threat to the stabili-ty of the regional ecological environment and the safety of agricultural production.To better understand the spa-tiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of drought,this study analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics,changing trends,and driving factors of vegetation drought in Inner Mongolia from 1958 to 2023 based on the crop water stress index(CWSI).Additionally,the time-lag effect of CWSI on the main driving factors was further explored.The results indicate that:(1)The distribution characteristics of the multi-year average CWSI in Inner Mongolia exhibit evident spatial heterogeneity,with higher values observed in the southwest and lower values in the northeast.Furthermore,the proportion of areas demonstrating a monotonically increasing CWSI trend from 1958 to 2023 reached 70.5%,and the abrupt breakpoints primarily occurred around 2000,with 1998 being the most significant.(2)Precipitation and temperature are the primary driving factors of vegetation drought in Inner Mongolia.The q values of the interaction between precipitation and temperature are nearly all above 0.8,indicating a highly significant relationship between the two factor.(3)The precipitation re-sponse of the CWSI in the entire region exhibits an average lag of 1.61 months,whereas the response to tempera-ture is weaker but with a shorter lag time,averaging 1.33 months.This study quantitatively analyzed the time-lag effect of vegetation drought on climatic factors,thereby providing a theoretical foundation and technical support for drought monitoring in Inner Mongolia.

陈先林;闫志远;刘全明;张圣微

内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018||内蒙古农业大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018||内蒙古农业大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018||黄河流域内蒙段水资源与水环境综合治理自治区协同创新中心,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018||内蒙古农业大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018||黄河流域内蒙段水资源与水环境综合治理自治区协同创新中心,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018||内蒙古自治区水资源保护与利用重点实验室,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018

作物缺水指数(CWSI)地理探测器时空变化驱动因素时滞效应内蒙古

crop water shortage index(CWSI)geographic detectorspatiotemporal changesdriving factorstime-delay effectInner Mongolia

《干旱区地理》 2026 (7)

1323-1335,13

内蒙古农业大学青年教师科研能力提升专项(BR230159)内蒙古自治区高等学校科学研究项目(NJZY21466)内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2021GG0072)内蒙古自治区教育厅一流学科科研专项(YLXKZX-NND-010)内蒙古自治区高等学校创新团队发展计划(NMGIRT2313)资助

10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.499

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