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事故责任认定的数学模型与辅助决策方法OA

The mathematical model of accident liability identification and the auxiliary decision-making method

中文摘要英文摘要

为实现事故过程中的责任认定,建立了事故责任认定的数学模型与辅助决策方法.基于空间故障网络理论,对事故演化过程进行了抽象.所建立的数学模型涵盖模态、因素、事件及责任判定,可实现定性与定量分析;辅助决策方法的思路为:首先确定责任事件,随后评估其对事故结果的影响程度,从而确定责任大小,实现辅助决策.通过实例分析展示了该数学模型和辅助决策方法的应用过程.结果表明:责任事件由人的不安全行为引发,非责任事件由复杂因素造成,前者在事故演化中起关键作用;责任认定需追溯事故演化过程,并通过责任事件重要度加以确定;实例中,责任事件责任人之一的责任远大于另一责任人,因此前者应负主要责任.该辅助决策方法具有实际应用价值及后续发展空间.

In order to realize liability identification in accident processes,a mathematical model and an auxiliary decision-making method for accident liability identification are constructed.Based on the space fault network theory,the accident evolution process is abstracted.The mathematical model and identification method are established.The mathematical model includes modalities,factors,events,and liability judgments,enabling qualitative and quantitative analysis.First,the liability event is determined,and then the impact of the event on the accident outcome is assessed,so as to determine the degree of liability for assisting decision-making.The application process of the proposed mathematical model and auxiliary decision-making method is demonstrated by a case study.The results show that liability events are caused by unsafe human behaviors,while non-liability events are caused by complex factors,with the former playing a key role in the accident evolution.Liability identification should be traced back to the accident evolution process and determined by the importance of liability events.In the case study,one responsible person of a liability event bears significantly greater responsibility than the other,and thus should assume primary liability.The proposed auxiliary decision-making method has practical application value and potential for further development.

李莎莎;王金秋;崔铁军;张晶

沈阳理工大学环境与化学工程学院,辽宁 沈阳 110159||清华大学安全科学学院,北京 100084沈阳理工大学环境与化学工程学院,辽宁 沈阳 110159沈阳理工大学环境与化学工程学院,辽宁 沈阳 110159清华大学安全科学学院,北京 100084||灾害事故调查评估应急管理部重点实验室,北京 100084

资源环境

安全系统工程空间故障网络事故责任认定数学模型辅助决策方法

safety system engineeringspace fault networkaccident liability identificationmathematical modelauxiliary decision-making method

《安全与环境工程》 2026 (3)

57-64,8

国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3016800)辽宁省属本科高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(LJ212410144051、LJ212410144032)

10.13578/j.cnki.issn.1671-1556.20250290

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