基于DEMATEL-AHP和熵权法的深部矿井突水危险性评价OA

The hazard of water inrush in deep mines is controlled by the coupling of geological conditions and engineering activities.Taking the-540 m level of a deep iron mine as the study area,this paper establishes a water inrush hazard assessment indicator system covering four dimensions(structural characteristics and rock mass integrity,hydrodynamic characteristics,water source and recharge conditions,and engineering disturbance and treatment)with a total of ten indicators.A game theory-based combination weighting method was adopted,incorporating the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-analytic hierarchy process(DEMATEL-AHP)to correct the entropy weight method,thereby overcoming the data polarization effect caused by purely data-driven approaches.On this basis,a three-stage assessment model,encompassing natural geology,mining-induced hazards,and curtain grouting status,was developed to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of water inrush hazard.The results are as follows:①The corrected comprehensive weighting system(curtain grouting:0.213 2,unit water inflow:0.167 2,mining influence:0.123 8)not only confirms the dominant disaster-inducing role of engineering disturbances but also restores the fundamental controlling influence of the geological background.②The hazard evolution exhibits spatial characteristics shifting from fault structure control to concentration at the mining center,and finally to annular interception by the grouting curtain.The grouting curtain successfully constructs an effective low-risk safety zone within the deep high-pressure water environment.③The high-west,low-east risk pattern identified by the evaluation aligns well with in-situ borehole pumping test data(where inflow in the west is over 10 times that of the east)and geological evidence such as gravel-filled faults underground.This model provides a scientific basis for water prevention and control in mines.