中国托育服务的供给约束、需求不足与政策干预OACHSSCD

In the context of low birth rate and demographic structure transformation,childcare services have become an important component of the na-tional fertility support policy system.However,the current childcare service market still faces a structural paradox where both supply and demand are insufficient.From a public economics perspective,this paper constructs an analysis framework for the interaction between supply and demand in child-care services,and analyzes the imbalance between supply and demand in the childcare service market and its causes.The research shows that on the supply side,childcare services have both private service and public welfare attributes,and their significant positive externalities,information asymme-try,and scale economy characteristics all lead to insufficient market supply and quality differentiation;on the demand side,family childcare demand is jointly constrained by factors such as lack of quality trust,cultural path dependence,price sensitivity,and the employment pattern of women.Based on this,the analysis highlights a"quality-trust"paradox:on the supply side,due to insufficient incentives,there is a lack of the motivation to provide high-quality services;on the demand side,due to quality concerns,the willingness to enroll in childcare is reduced.These two sides reinforce each other and form a low-level equilibrium characterized by low supply,low demand,low quality,and low trust.Grounded in the logic of interaction among the government,the market,and families,we argue that policy should evolve from simple capacity expansion to a coordinated strategy of"scaling up,upgrading quality,and building institutional trust".This is intended to steer the market toward a high-level equilibrium in which supply and demand mutually reinforce each other,while quality and trust are synergistically enhanced.