何以突变:高市早苗内阁对台战略转型的深层逻辑OACHSSCD

Japan's successive governments have long adhered to a posture of strategic ambiguity in their Taiwan policy.However,following Sanae Takaichi's assumption of the premiership,Japan's Taiwan policy underwent a rapid shift toward strategic clarity.Drawing on neoclassical realism,this article investigates the sources of this abrupt transformation.This article finds that,against the backdrop of intensifying systemic structural pressures from the China-U.S.strategic competition,Japan's threat perception as a maritime state has been markedly heightened,prompting the Japanese government to elevate the strategic priority accorded to the Taiwan region in its assessment of the credibility of American security commitments.Concurrently,a confluence of unit-level factors—including Takaichi's misperceptions,the internal power configuration within the Liberal Democratic Party,the prevailing disposition of Japan's strategic community and public toward the Taiwan issue,and the historical path dependencies embedded in Japan's strategic culture regarding its Taiwan policy—has collectively propelled Japan toward an offensive national threat perception,leading to an assertive and concentrated strategic orientation on the Taiwan region.The Takaichi cabinet's strategic reorientation on the Taiwan region not only undermines the foundation of the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations,but also exerts a pronounced destabilizing effect on the regional strategic order in East Asia.In response to the challenges posed by Japan's abrupt strategic shift in its Taiwan policy,China must cultivate a strategic mindset,combining steadfast strategic resolve with calibrated strategic flexibility.