中国碳排放权配额分配的范式设计与理论阐释OACHSSCD

The allocation of carbon emissions allowances is a central component of emissions trading systems,shaping both the fairness and effectiveness of carbon markets.The underlying theoretical paradigm for allocation plays a critical role in enhancing national climate governance capacity and improving the performance of the carbon market.In China,the current method based on sectoral benchmarks linked to actual output does not align well with the national carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.It also lacks sufficient compatibility with the absolute cap control required for effective emissions management.This paper examines the paradigm design of China's carbon allowance allocation mechanism by analyzing its institutional logic and operational mechanisms.It focuses on how emission reduction targets are distributed across key industries and evaluates essential elements such as cap setting,industry classification,benchmark development,initial allocation,and dynamic adjustments.The study identifies weaknesses in the current system regarding total emissions control,the transmission of price signals,and compliance incentives.Based on this analysis,the paper proposes an optimized framework centered on goal orientation,supported by robust data and coordinated incentives.It also recommends the development of a national-level carbon reserve and adjustment mechanism to reduce market volatility,alleviate concentrated compliance risks,and improve the interaction between pricing and emissions reduction incentives.This research aims to establish a theoretical foundation for goal-driven allowance allocation in China and provide policy insights to support the institutional development of its carbon market and the implementation of the dual-carbon strategy.