变化环境下渭河流域径流演变归因及空间异质性研究OA

The Weihe River Basin,a typical semi-arid to semi-humid transition zone in the middle reaches of the Yellow River,exhibits runoff evolution that directly impacts regional water security and the ecological health of the Yellow River.Utilizing ERA5-Land reanalysis and socio-economic data,this study applies the Budyko water balance framework and a Random Forest model to systematically analyze the dominant mechanisms and spatial heterogeneity of runoff evolution from 2003 to 2024.The results reveal that:①Basin runoff displays a fluctuating downward trend(-1.525 mm/a)with significant spatial non-uniformity in its attenuation.②Climatic warming and drying dominate runoff reduction,contributing 61.33%compared to 38.67%from human activities.③The driving mechanism exhibits a pronounced"spatial dualistic structure"—while climate sets the baseline water volume,per capita GDP statistically surpasses natural factors as the primary explanatory variable,driven by high-intensity economic water consumption in the downstream Guanzhong Plain,whereas upstream mountainous areas remain precipitation-dominated.This study clarifies the spatial differentiation of the"Nature-Society"dualistic water cycle and proposes a zoned management strategy of"adaptive protection upstream and demand-side regulation downstream."