黄河流域内蒙古段土地利用和生态系统服务价值时空演变及模拟预测OA

[Objective]The spatiotemporal evolution of land use and ecosystem service value in the Yellow River basin was analyzed and simulated in order to provide scientific support for ecological protection and high-quality development of the basin.[Methods]Taking the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin as the research object,and based on land use data from 1990 to 2023,a multi-dimensional analysis method was adopted.By combining land use dynamic changes with the spatial transfer matrix,the regional ecosystem service value(ESV)was quantified using the value equivalent assessment system,and the interaction between different land use types and ESV was revealed through the ecological contribution rate.Meanwhile,the intPLUS model was used to simulate the land use pattern and ESV evolution trend under four scenarios in 2035:natural development,cultivated land protection,ecological protection,and urban development.[Results]① Grassland and unused land were the main land use types in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin.The areas of construction land and forestland increased continuously,while the areas of unused land,cultivated land,and water bodies showed a decreasing trend.The total area of land use type conversion reached 47 272.91 km².The land use types with the strongest outward transfer were water bodies,forestland,and construction land,while grassland had the largest inward transfer.② From 1990 to 2023,the ESV in the study area decreased slightly by 0.85％,with grassland as the core contribution type.Spatially,it showed a pattern of"high in the northeast and low in the west",and the spatial agglomeration of high-value and low-value areas of ESV change rate was obvious in each stage.③ Among the four scenario simulations for 2035,only the ecological protection scenario could achieve ESV growth,while the ESV loss was the most significant under the urban development scenario.The change in grassland ESV dominated the overall trend.[Conclusion]The optimal development path in 2035 is to adhere to ecological priority,strictly control the disorderly expansion of urban areas,promote the restoration of core ecological land such as grassland,and realize the coordinated development of land use allocation and ecological protection.