土地流转对农户家庭经济韧性的因果效应及机制边界OA

[Objective]Enhancing the economic resilience of rural households,with a focus on sustainable income growth and improved risk resistance,is an essential component of achieving common prosperity.[Method]Using data from the China Family Panel Studies(2016-2022),this study constructs an economic resilience indicator centered on the ability to control income fluctuations.A double machine learning method is employed to identify the causal effects of land transfer,and further analysis examines the mediating roles of income structure reconstruction and village-level positive externalities.Additionally,a moderation framework of"capacity empowerment and institutional alignment"is introduced to identify the performance boundaries.[Results]Land transfer has overall enhanced household economic resilience.Specifically,land transfer-out forms"efficiency resilience"through strengthening non-agricultural pathways,while land transfer-in fosters"diversified resilience"via agricultural expansion and income diversification.Moreover,the positive externality mechanism at the village level gradually emerges after the production cycle.The stronger the household capacity endowment and the more favorable the institutional environment,the more likely land transfer is to unlock resilience dividends.Conversely,factors such as institutional lags in agricultural markets and insufficient substitution for the subsistence function of land constrain its broader applicability.[Conclusion]This study provides micro-level empirical evidence for understanding the differentiated effects of land factor transformation and the precision of policy design from both individual and institutional perspectives.