雅江中游风光资源时空特征与水风光出力互补性OA

[Objective]The midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin(YZRB-M)is rich in hydropower resources,and several hydropower plants have already been constructed.Under China's 14th Five-Year Plan,the development of hydro-wind-solar(HWS)renewable energy bases that leverage the dispatch flexibility of hydropower plants has been proposed.Although HWS resources are abundant,integrating wind and solar power into the grid remains challenging due to their high intermittency,variability,and randomness.Scientifically exploiting HWS generation complementarity-defined as the ability of one energy source to compensate for the low availability of others-is an effective strategy for improving wind and solar generation.However,existing complementarity indexes often lack clear physical significance and are difficult to interpret.Therefore,developing a complementarity index with explicit physical significance,and clarifying the spatiotemporal patterns and enhancement pathways of wind-solar output complementarity based on a rigorous assessment of wind-solar resource distributions in the YZRB-M,are essential for the construction and stable operation of an HWS renewable energy base.[Methods]Accordingly,this study develops a quantitative indicator for HWS generation complementarity based on power generation curves.After evaluating the development potential of wind and solar resources,the spatiotemporal characteristics of HWS energy complementarity are assessed for Shannan City in the YZRB-M.[Results]The results show that the technological and economic development potentials for solar energy are 183.9 and 183.3 GW,respectively.The technological development potential for wind energy is 75.5 GW,and the economic development potential accounts for only 42.6％of that potential(i.e.,32.2 GW).Spatially,wind-solar energy complementarity is significantly stronger in Lhoka County and southern Nagarze County than in other regions of Shannan City,with the northwest-north zone showing the highest interregional complementarity.To build a grid-friendly clean energy base,we recommend either concurrent development of wind and solar resources in Gonggar,Qonggyai,and Qusum Counties,or prioritized standalone development in Comai County.Temporally,wind speed and solar radiation in Shannan City have declined over the past 44 years,accompanied by a decreasing trend in wind-solar complementarity.Nevertheless,hydropower effectively mitigates this decline:the interannual variability of HWS complementarity is reduced by～36.8％compared with wind-solar complementarity alone,with the most pronounced improvement(3.4 times)occurring in summer.[Conclusions]Future long-term declines in wind speed and solar radiation in the YZRB-M may further weaken wind-solar complementarity.However,abundant hydropower resources can mitigate the volatility of wind and solar power generation,thereby enhancing the long-term stability of power generation from an HWS renewable energy base.Our findings provide a scientific basis for the planning and construction of renewable energy bases in the YZRB-M.