莠去津环境分布的趋势研判OA

In this study,the SWAT-KM model was employed to simulate the temporospatial dynamics of atrazine concentrations in multiple environmental compartments.The simulation period includes both the application phase from 2010 to 2021 and the post-prohibition period from 2022 to 2024,while CMIP6 meteorological scenarios(SSP2-4.5)were adopted to forecast atrazine dynamics from 2025 to 2030.Following a successful hydrological calibration,SWAT-KM reproduced atrazine concentrations as sampled at multiple sites with high accuracy in Dianchi basin(85％within one order).Simulation results reveal that higher riverine exposure often occur in the northern subbasins,and atrazine concentrations in soil and air closely related to the spatial patter of land use.The forecasting simulations show that the atrazine concentrations in reaches and soil will decrease by 65％within nine years of its application cessation,whereas those in the Dianchi Lake,both in the water column and the bed sediment,will continue to rise.These findings underscore the pronounced persistence and latency of atrazine,suggesting an alarm to its lingering environmental risks.