长江经济带林业绿色经济效率的时空演化及驱动因素的空间溢出效应OA
Spatio-temporal evolution and spatial spillover effects of driving factors of forestry green economic efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
林业绿色经济效率提升是长江经济带平衡经济增长与生态保护、实现高质量发展的重要路径.基于2004-2023年长江经济带11个省市的面板数据,文章将林业碳排放量与农药使用量纳入非期望产出框架,采用Super-SBM模型测算林业绿色经济效率,综合运用Kernel核密度估计、莫兰指数刻画其时空演化特征,并通过空间杜宾模型考察技术创新、环境规制的驱动效应及其空间溢出机制.结果表明:(1)林业绿色经济效率呈波动上升态势,区域差异逐步收敛,空间上呈现"下游>中游>上游"的阶梯式递减格局,全局莫兰指数显著为正,空间集聚特征持续增强.(2)技术创新与环境规制是效率提升的核心驱动力,二者对本地效率均具有显著的正向影响;产业结构因转型滞后而呈现显著的负向抑制作用.(3)技术创新与环境规制均表现出显著的正向空间溢出效应,其中技术创新的间接效应尤为突出,其强度远超直接效应,印证了绿色技术的强扩散能力.政策启示:强化技术创新引领作用,构建全流域绿色技术扩散网络;协同推进环境规制政策,放大正向空间溢出效应;加快林业产业结构升级,因地制宜推动绿色转型;强化制度约束与激励,将林业绿色效率纳入地方政府绩效考核,为长江经济带林业绿色高质量发展提供制度保障.
Enhancing forestry green economic efficiency is of great significance for balancing economic growth and ecological protection,thereby promoting the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Based on the panel data from 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2004 to 2023,this study incorporated forestry carbon emissions and pesticide usage into an undesirable output framework.The Super-SBM model was employed to measure forestry green economic efficiency.Kernel density estimation and Moran's I index were used to characterize its spatiotemporal evolution,while the Spatial Durbin Model was applied to investigate the driving effects of technological innovation and environmental regulation,along with their spatial spillover mechanisms.The findings showed that:(1)During the study period,forestry green economic efficiency exhibited a fluctuating upward trend,with regional disparities gradually narrowing.Spatially,it presented a stepwise declining pattern of"downstream>midstream>upstream".The global Moran's I index was significantly positive,indicating a continuously strengthening spatial agglomeration.(2)Technological innovation and environmental regulation were identified as the core drivers of efficiency improvement,both exerting significant positive impacts on local efficiency.In contrast,the industrial structure,constrained by a lagging transition,showed a significant negative inhibitory effect.(3)Both technological innovation and environmental regulation demonstrated significant positive spatial spillover effects,the indirect effect of technological innovation was particularly prominent,far exceeding its direct effect,which confirmed the strong diffusion capacity of green technologies.Policy implications:strengthening the leading role of technological innovation and establishing a basin-wide green technology diffusion network,collaboratively promoting environmental regulation policies to amplify positive spatial spillovers,accelerating the upgrading of the forestry industrial structure to promote green transitions according to local conditions,strengthening institutional constraints and incentives,integrating forestry green efficiency into local government performance assessment,so as to provide institutional guarantee for the high-quality green development of forestry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
张吉阳;黎振强;曾玉林
湖南理工大学经济与管理学院 岳阳 414006湖南理工大学经济与管理学院 岳阳 414006湖南理工大学经济与管理学院 岳阳 414006
管理科学
林业绿色经济效率Super-SBM模型时空格局空间杜宾模型长江经济带
forestry green economic efficiencySuper-SBM modelspatio-temporal patternSpatial Durbin ModelYangtze River Economic Belt
《林业经济》 2026 (1)
69-84,16
国家社会科学基金项目"长江经济带港口制造业集群发展的制度因素分析与制度创新研究"(20BGL290).
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