首页|期刊导航|红水河|基于蜣螂优化算法与长短期记忆网络的大坝变形预测组合模型研究

基于蜣螂优化算法与长短期记忆网络的大坝变形预测组合模型研究OA

A Combined Prediction Model for Dam Deformation Based on Dung Beetle Optimizer and Long Short-Term Memory Network

中文摘要英文摘要

针对传统大坝安全监测模型难以准确刻画影响因素与效应量之间复杂非线性关系,以及单一 LSTM模型超参数依赖人工调试、易陷入局部最优的问题,提出一种基于蜣螂优化算法(DBO)与长短期记忆网络(LSTM)的组合预测模型.通过DBO对LSTM的初始学习率、隐藏单元数、迭代次数等关键超参数进行全局寻优,构建DBO-LSTM模型,并基于某混凝土重力坝顶引张线水平位移监测数据进行验证.结果表明:DBO-LSTM模型的预测精度显著优于传统多元回归模型和单一 LSTM模型;与GA-LSTM模型精度相当,但其收敛速度更快、参数设置更简单、寻优结果更稳定.DBO-LSTM组合模型在复杂时序预测场景中能有效提升大坝变形预测的精度与稳定性,但在简单时序数据或强噪声环境下优势不明显,且计算成本较高.

To address the problems that traditional dam safety monitoring models struggle to accurately characterize the complex nonlinear relationship between influencing factors and effect quantities,and that the single LSTM model relies on manual hyperparameter tuning and is prone to local optima,a combined prediction model based on the Dung Beetle Optimizer(DBO)and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network is proposed.The DBO is used to globally optimize key hyperparameters of LSTM,such as the initial learning rate,the number of hidden units,and the number of iterations,to construct the DBO-LSTM model,which is verified using monitoring data of the horizontal displacement of the wire extensometer at the crest of a concrete gravity dam.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the DBO-LSTM model is significantly superior to that of the traditional multiple regression model and the single LSTM model.Its accuracy is comparable to that of the GA-LSTM model,but it has faster convergence speed,simpler parameter setting,and more stable optimization results.The DBO-LSTM combined model can effectively improve the accuracy and stability of dam deformation prediction in complex time-series prediction scenarios,but its advantages are not obvious in simple time-series data or strong noise environments,and it has a relatively high computational cost.

商永喜;陈斯煜;芦浩;董旭

大唐水电科学技术研究院有限公司,四川 成都 610083水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029||水利部大坝安全管理中心,江苏 南京 210029水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029大唐水电科学技术研究院有限公司,四川 成都 610083

建筑与水利

大坝安全监测变形预测长短期记忆网络蜣螂优化算法组合预测模型超参数优化时序数据

dam safety monitoringdeformation predictionlong short-term memory(LSTM)dung beetle optimizer(DBO)combined prediction modelhyperparameter optimizationtime-series data

《红水河》 2026 (2)

1-7,7

国家自然科学基金项目(52309157)国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3210703、2024YFC3015903)

10.3969/j.issn.1001-408X.2026.02.001

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