基于不同蓄意攻击的城市群客运网络级联失效与鲁棒性研究OA

To accurately evaluate the robustness of multi-layer passenger transport networks in urban agglomerations,this study proposes a cascading failure model that couples overload failure with a modified percolation theory.First,a multi-layer coupled network incorporating sub-networks such as highways and railways,along with transfer relationships,is constructed using the Space-L method.Nodes are weighted by integrating station capacity with topological attributes.Second,based on the load-capacity model,a percolation failure criterion that comprehensively considers global,individual,and local dimensions is introduced to identify structural failure nodes that are difficult to capture using traditional overload-based models.Then,a network connectivity efficiency metric is constructed to quantify the degree to which network service functions are maintained,based on the proportion of nodes in each connected component after cascading failure to the total number of nodes in the initial network.Finally,the improved cascading failure model is simulated using the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Ulanqab urban agglomeration as a case study,analyzing robustness under different attack intensities(P=20%,P=70%),strategies(degree centrality,PageRank,giant connected component,and weighted modified betweenness attacks),and load levels(low,medium,high).The research reveals that low-intensity attacks primarily trigger overload failures,whereas high-intensity attacks shift toward percolation failures.Under the four attack strategies,the improved cascading failure model predicts the network collapse process to occur 47.4%,45.5%,50%,and 59.5%earlier,respectively.Furthermore,the structurally balanced long-distance bus network is sensitive to percolation failure,while the hub-and-spoke railway network is sensitive to overload failure.The results indicate that by incorporating dual failure mechanisms,this model can more accurately assess network robustness,providing crucial decision-making support for the differentiated protection of various passenger transport layers within urban agglomerations.