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融合时序卷积网络与多头自注意力的时间序列预测模型OACHSSCD

Time series prediction model integrating temporal convolutional networks and multi-head self-attention

中文摘要英文摘要

传统预测模型在捕捉长期依赖与提升多步预测精度方面存在明显不足.为进一步解决长序列训练中梯度消失、计算效率低及多步预测误差累积等问题,提出一种融合时序卷积网络、多头自注意力机制与序列到序列架构的时间序列预测模型.首先,使用时序卷积网络提取局部时序特征,利用其膨胀卷积结构与残差连接缓解梯度消失并支持并行计算;然后,引入多头自注意力机制,对时序卷积网络输出进行全局依赖建模与上下文语义增强,形成"局部-全局"协同的特征提取机制;最后,通过带注意力机制的序列到序列框架,将增强后的特征序列映射为未来多步价格序列.基于中国A股市场多只股票的日频历史数据集的实验结果表明,该模型在多项指标上均显著优于基线方法,其均方误差与平均绝对误差明显降低,验证了该模型在股票价格多步预测任务中的有效性与优越性.票价格多步预测任务中的有效性与优越性.

Traditional forecasting models exhibit notable limitations in capturing long-term dependencies and enhancing the accuracy of multi-step predictions.To further address issues such as gradient vanishing during long-sequence training,low computational efficiency,and error accumulation in multi-step forecas-ting,this paper proposes a time series forecasting model that integrates temporal convolutional networks,a multi-head self-attention mechanism,and a sequence-to-sequence architecture.First,temporal convolu-tional networks are employed to extract local temporal features,leveraging their dilated convolution struc-tures and residual connections to mitigate gradient vanishing and support parallel computation.Then,a multi-head self-attention mechanism is introduced to model global dependencies and enhance contextual semantics based on the outputs of the temporal convolutional networks,forming a"local-global"collabo-rative feature extraction mechanism.Finally,a sequence-to-sequence framework equipped with an atten-tion mechanism maps the enhanced feature sequences into future multi-step price sequences.Experimental results based on daily historical datasets of multiple A-share stocks in the Chinese stock market demon-strate that the proposed model significantly outperforms baseline methods across multiple metrics,with notable reductions in both mean squared error and mean absolute error,validating its effectiveness and su-periority in the task of multi-step stock price forecasting.

王嵩巍;孙林

天津科技大学 人工智能学院,天津 300457天津科技大学 人工智能学院,天津 300457

信息技术与安全科学

时序卷积网络多头自注意力序列到序列股票价格多步预测

temporal convolutional networkmulti-head self-attentionsequence to sequencemulti-step stock price forecasts

《聊城大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026 (4)

475-485,11

国家自然科学基金项目(62076089)天津市自然科学基金项目(24JCYBJC00890)资助

10.19728/j.issn1672-6634.2026010019

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