基于马尔可夫模型的三偏心蝶阀可靠性建模研究OA

Aiming at the multi-state failure characteristics of triple eccentric butterfly valves,which encompass both progressive performance degradation and catastrophic sudden failures,a reliability predic-tion method integrating fault tree analysis(FTA)and Markov process is proposed.Taking a DN150 triple eccentric butterfly valve as an example,a three-dimensional geometric model is established.A robust set of stress distribution samples is generated by leveraging finite element Analysis(FEA)for stress simula-tion in conjunction with the Monte Carlo method.Subsequently,the reliability evolution process was fur-ther simulated using a Markov model,followed by a rigorous error analysis.The results show that the Markov model has strong predictive ability and numerical stability,and can effectively identify the main failure components,key bottom events and weak links of the system.This method significantly improves the accuracy of reliability evaluation,and can provide theoretical support for the optimal design and opera-tion and maintenance decision of triple eccentric butterfly valve.