基于基尼系数与集对分析的北京市水安全评价OA
Water Security Evaluation in Beijing Based on Gini Coefficient and Set Pair Analysis
[目的]水安全是经济社会发展的基础和人类生产生活的保障.揭示北京市水安全状况,为北京市水资源管理优化与空间配置提供量化依据.[方法]基于 DPSIR 模型构建北京市水安全评价指标体系,利用基尼系数评价北京市整体水安全状况和识别各项指标的影响强弱,运用集对分析法对 2018-2022 年北京市各行政区的水安全状况进行综合评价.[结果]①以人口数量为匹配对象时,北京市各行政区的水安全等级占比分别为:Ⅱ级(较安全)9.09%,Ⅲ级(基本安全)65.45%,Ⅳ级(较不安全)25.45%.②在两组匹配关系中,以人均 GDP 为匹配对象时,年均水安全等级表现为Ⅳ级(较不安全);以人口数量为匹配对象时的水安全状况相对较差,年均值表现为Ⅴ级(极不安全).③北京市 2020 年和 2021 年的水安全状况最优,2022 年的水安全状况最差.[结论]针对北京市的水安全状况,建议优化水资源空间配置格局,调整产业发展结构,有序疏解城区过密人口,减少化肥施用量,实施水土保持工程,推广节水灌溉技术,加大对水土流失的治理力度.
[Objective]Water security is the foundation of socioeconomic development and a guarantee for human production and life.Conducting in-depth research on the water security situation in Beijing,in order to provide quantitative reference for the optimization and spatial allocation of urban water resources.[Method]This study constructed a water security evaluation indicator system for Beijing based on the DPSIR model,used the Gini coefficient to evaluate the overall water security situa-tion in Beijing and to identify the strength of the influence of each indicator,and conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the water security situation of each administrative district in Beijing from 2018 to 2022 based on the set pair analysis method.[Results](1)The water security situation of each administrative district in Beijing was 9.09%at level Ⅱ(relatively safe),65.45%at level Ⅲ(basically safe),and 25.45%at level IV(relatively unsafe).(2)Among the two sets of matching rela-tionships,when the water security situation with per capita GDP was the matching object,the multi-year average value was level Ⅳ(relatively unsafe),while the water security situation with population size as the matching object was worse,with the multi-year average value being level Ⅴ(extremely unsafe).(3)The water security situation in Beijing was the best in 2020 and 2021,and the worst in 2022.[Conclusions]Regarding the water security situation in Beijing,it is recommended to ad-just the spatial layout of Beijing's water resources,improve the industrial development structure,disperse the dense popula-tion concentration,reduce fertilizer application rate,implement soil and water conservation projects,promote water-saving ir-rigation technology,and strengthen the efforts in controlling soil erosion.
门宝辉;伍兴涛;庞金凤;刘楠
华北电力大学 水利与水电工程学院,北京 102206华北电力大学 水利与水电工程学院,北京 102206华北电力大学 水利与水电工程学院,北京 102206华北电力大学 水利与水电工程学院,北京 102206
建筑与水利
水安全集对分析基尼系数洛伦兹曲线驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应模型
water securityset pair analysisGini coefficientLorenz curvedriver-pressure-state-impact-response model
《华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026 (3)
24-34,11
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401406).
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