基于曲线投影寻踪动态聚类模型的天然气进口风险评价OACHSSCD

Various risk factors encountered during natural gas imports threaten supply security.Given the complexity and multiplicity of factors affecting natural gas import security,this study designs a novel risk assessment indicator system based on the DPSIRM theoretical model and constructs a curve projection pursuit dynamic clustering risk assessment model.Using China's natural gas import data from 2010 to 2024 as the research subject,this study quantitatively evaluates the risks associated with China's natu-ral gas imports.The empirical results indicate the following:(1)key factors significantly impacting China's natural gas import se-curity include the degree of external dependence on natural gas,long-term import capacity,stability of transit routes,transporta-tion distance,diversification of import sources,geopolitical risks,and import prices;(2)from 2010 to 2024,China's natural gas import network transitioned through five distinct states:"safe-highly unsafe-marginally safe-unsafe-marginally safe";(3)among China's natural gas import sources,countries with relatively high comprehensive risk levels include Turkmenistan,Nigeria,Papua New Guinea,Oman,Myanmar,Egypt,the United States,and Uzbekistan,while those with relatively lower comprehen-sive risk levels include Malaysia,Russia,Australia,Qatar,Brunei,Kazakhstan,and Peru.Finally,policy recommendations are proposed to promote the healthy development of the natural gas sector in China.This study also provides new ideas and metho-dologies for governments,enterprises,and academia to conduct risk analysis.