首页|期刊导航|广东水利水电|石羊河流域西大河干旱指数演变规律分析

石羊河流域西大河干旱指数演变规律分析OA

Analysis of the Evolution Law of Drought Index in the West River of Shiyang River Basin

中文摘要英文摘要

干旱指数作为反映气候干旱程度的重要指标,是揭示区域气候干旱变化的关键参量,以甘肃省河西内陆河石羊河流域主要支流西大河为研究对象,基于西大河水库水文站实测资料,运用时间序列理论,采用多种趋势和突变检验方法,并结合功率谱密度法,系统分析了1981-2022年干旱指数的演变规律.研究结果表明:1981-2022年干旱指数总体呈下降趋势,在2010年发生显著突变,研究时段可划分为1981-2009年(高值期)和2010-2022年(低值期)两个特征阶段;干旱指数变化存在约10 a时间尺度的主周期变化规律,2020年后西大河流域干旱变化情况可能进入新的变化周期.

The drought index,as an important indicator reflecting the degree of climate drought,is a key parameter for revealing regional climate drought changes.This study takes the main tributary of the Shiyang River in the inland river basin of Hexi,Gansu Province,as the research object.Based on the measured data of the Xida River Reservoir hydrological station,using time series theory,multiple trend and mutation testing methods,and combined with power spectral density method,the evolution law of drought index from 1981 to 2022 was systematically analyzed.The research results indicate that the drought index showed an overall downward trend from 1981 to 2022,with a significant mutation occurring in 2010.The study period can be divided into two characteristic stages:1981-2009(high value period)and 2010-2022(low value period);The change in drought index follows a main cycle of about 10 years,and after 2020,the drought situation in the Xihe River Basin has entered a new cycle of change.

朱咏;雷明宇;霍飞龙

甘肃省水文水资源中心,兰州 730000甘肃省水文水资源中心,兰州 730000甘肃省水文水资源中心,兰州 730000

天文与地球科学

干旱指数时间序列演变规律西大河

drought indextime seriesevolutionary lawthe xida river

《广东水利水电》 2026 (6)

29-33,5

甘肃省科技计划项目软科学专项(编号:23JRZA339).

评论