非一致性条件下绥江上游洪水频率分析OA

Affected by climate change and human activities,the hydrological sequence of Zhongzhou River in the upper reaches of the Suijiang River has mutated,causing the problem of inconsistency in flood frequency distribution.This paper takes Zhongzhouhe Elephant Station as an example to analyze the consistency of its annual maximum flood peak flow,and finds that the sequence has moderate variations;the frequency distribution of the annual maximum flood peak flow at the Elephant Station was derived by using wavelet analysis method,and the results show that the dispersion of the annual maximum flood peak flow at the Elephant Station showed an increase in the degree of dispersion of the annual maximum flood peak flow at the Elephant Station,and the symmetry degree of the mean weakened;compared with the current situation and the flood frequency under the past conditions,when the recurrence period is consistent,the flood peak flow at the Elephant Station showed a decrease in trend,and its change value was within 20%.The calculation results of the flood peak flow frequency at the Elephant Station under the current conditions are small and the calculation results of the traditional method,and the change value is within±10%.