长江水库4种极端致灾情景的洪水模拟及风险评估OA

This study takes the Changjiang Reservoir in Zhongshan City as the research object.Four extreme disaster scenarios were established based on the breach size,breach formation speed,and initial reservoir water level.Using the TUFLOW software,the dam-break flood propagation process was simulated and calculated,followed by a systematic analysis of the flood characteristics and inundation risks under the different scenarios.The results indicate that the maximum peak discharge,and inundation area are influenced by the comprehensive effects of the breach size,breach formation speed,and initial water level.The most hazardous scenario is the"high water level+instantaneous large breach"overtopping failure.Under the same conditions,a higher initial reservoir level leads to a larger flood scale;furthermore,the peak discharge and water level decrease with increasing distance from the dam.In terms of spatial distribution,the Torch Development Zone and Dongqu Street suffer the most severe impacts,with areas along the Xiaoyin Chong waterway and major transportation arteries identified as high-risk zones.This research provides a theoretical basis and technical support for flood control decision-making and regional disaster emergency management for this reservoir.