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国际大宗商品定价机制演变、影响及政策建议OA

Evolution,Impact,and Policy Recommendations of International Bulk Commodity Pricing Mechanisms

中文摘要英文摘要

国际大宗商品定价机制的演变是国际经济秩序变迁的缩影.以铁矿石为研究对象,系统梳理其定价机制从"年度长协、离岸价、同涨幅"的纵向一体化定价向指数化转型的历程.结合铁矿石在我国目前经济发展阶段中不可替代的重要作用、铁矿石自给率偏低及钢铁产业集中度不高等现实背景,通过理论与实证分析,得出以下结论:相较于原有的铁矿石长协定价机制,我国在现行的普氏指数定价机制下利益受到损害.然而,尽管普氏指数存在诸多缺陷,其被人为操纵的可能性相对较小.基于上述分析,最后提出保障铁矿石供给安全、提高钢铁行业产业集中度、积极推动铁矿石期货市场发展和构建铁矿石现货市场评价体系等政策建议.

The evolution of international bulk commodity pricing mechanisms serves as a microcosm of the transformation of the international economic order.This pa-per takes iron ore as an entry point to systematically examine the evolution of its pricing mechanism from a vertically integrated pricing model characterized by"an-nual long-term contracts,free on board(FOB)pricing,and unified price increase rates"to an index-based model.Considering the irreplaceable role of iron ore in Chi-na's current stage of economic development,China's low self-sufficiency rate in i-ronore,and the low concentration of its steel industry,this paper employs both theoretical and empirical analysis to conclude that,compared to the original long-term contract pricing mechanism for iron ore,China's interests are compromised under the current Platts IODEX pricing mechanism.However,despite the various shortcomings and deficiencies of the Platts IODEX,the probability of its being ma-nipulated is relatively low.Finally,based on the preceding analysis,this paper offers policy recommendations such as ensuring the security of iron ore supply,increasing the industrial concentration of the steel industry,actively promoting the develop-ment of the iron ore futures market,and building an evaluation system for the iron ore spot market to enhance China's iron ore pricing power and safeguard national development interests.

高峰

中国人民银行金融研究所,北京 100033

管理科学

国际大宗商品铁矿石定价机制演变普氏指数

International Bulk CommoditiesIron OreEvolution of Pricing Mecha-nismPlatts IODEX

《当代金融研究》 2026 (3)

32-43,12

10.20092/j.cnki.ddjryj.2026.03.003

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