考虑多维不确定信息的综合需求响应风险控制策略OA

The"dual carbon"goal has accelerated the transition of the energy supply from traditional fossil fuels to renewable energy,but it has also aggravated the imbalance between supply and demand in energy systems.Integrated demand response(IDR)is an effective means to maintain the balance between supply and demand.In IDR,uncertainty information on the demand side is a key factor affecting the implementation effect of IDR.However,most existing studies on user uncertainty information just researched response-uncertainty information of users,neglecting the impact of participation-uncertainty information of them.Moreover,existing research failed to consider response risk caused by these uncertain information in the modeling of IDR.They did not deeply investigate the impact of response risk on integrated energy service provider(IESP)strategies.This paper establishes a new incentive IDR model based on the principal-agent theory of optimal incentive contracts under uncertain information and Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio theory,coupled with a risk control strategy under multi-dimension uncertain information.The user model considering multi-dimension uncertain information and the IESP model based on principal-agent theory and Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio theory are proposed to solve the problem of uncertain information and corresponding risks.The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by numerical examples,which not only helps reduce the cost of integrated energy service providers but also helps improve the users' benefits,achieving a win-win situation for all parties.