地方财政压力对地方财政政策预期管理的影响OACHSSCD

Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities from 2013 to 2022,this paper con-structs an index for managing expectations of local fiscal policies and empirically examines the im-pact of local fiscal pressure on this expectation management.The study finds that local fiscal pressure significantly reduces the level of expectation management of local fiscal policies,and this effect is primarily transmitted through the"tax-fee substitution"effect.This impact exhibits sig-nificant heterogeneity across different cities and regions,and the pressure from local government economic growth targets further intensifies this effect.In light of this,in the process of continu-ously alleviating local fiscal pressure,it is necessary to strengthen fiscal policy communication,enhance policy transparency and credibility,regulate local non-tax revenue,and weaken the rigid assessment constraints of local government economic growth targets.