基于IPCC Tier 1层级的甘肃省家畜CH4排放特征OA

As one of three major greenhouse gases contributing to global warming,methane(CH4)is primarily derived from anthropogenic production activity.Agricultural production(livestock and poultry breeding)has become the primary source of anthropogenic CH4 emissions.Therefore,it is important to analyze and estimate CH4 emissions from animal husbandry to control greenhouse gas emissions,formulate emission reduction measures,and realize green and low-carbon development.However,currently,most studies on CH4 emissions from animal husbandry focus on central and coastal areas,whereas the analysis and estimation of CH4 emissions in Gansu Province,a major animal husbandry province,are scarce.In this study,based on the livestock production data of 14 cities and prefectures in Gansu Province,the IPCC Tier 1 method was used to estimate livestock CH4 emissions from 2017 to 2021.The pattern and change characteristics of livestock CH4 emissions in Gansu Province were analyzed,and the gray prediction model was used to predict livestock CH4 emissions in Gansu Province over the next four years.The results showed that livestock CH4 emissions in Gansu Province from 2017 to 2021 were 323 200,332 900,344 200,369 800 and 399 200 t,respectively,showing an annual increasing trend.The livestock CH4 emissions in Gansu Province are primarily concentrated in cities and prefectures,such as the Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,and Wuwei and Zhangye Cities.Analysis of the gray prediction model showed that livestock CH4 emissions in Gansu Province from 2024 to 2027 were 481 000,513 700,548 900 and 586 900 t,respectively,showing an annual increasing trend.The results of this study can provide a reference for greenhouse gas estimation and green and low-carbon farming in Gansu Province.