1990-2021年中国与全球女性乳腺及妇科癌症负担差异及预测OA

Objective:To analyze and predict the burden of breast and reproductive system malignancies in China using GBD2021 data and compare the differences with global levels.Methods:Disease burden,population,and pro-jected population data for breast cancer,cervical cancer,ovarian cancer,and endometrial cancer from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database.After screening and processing,disease burden data for China and the world in 2021 were obtained.Join-point regression models were used to analyze the trends from 1990 to 2021;Bayesian age-cycle-cohort(BAPC)models were used to predict the data for the next 15 years.Results:From 1990 to 2021,the incidence rates of breast cancer and endometrial cancer increased in both China and globally,while cervical cancer increased in China but decreased globally,and ovarian cancer decreased.The ASDR(Average Risk-Dose Ratio)of all four cancers decreased in both China and globally.The projected trends indicate that the ASIR and ASDR for breast,ovarian,and endometrial cancers in China will continue to rise from 2022 to 2036,while the burden of cervical cancer will decline.The incidence of breast cancer in China is projected to surpass the global average in 2029.The ASDR for all four cancers is projected to remain lower than the global average until 2036.Conclusions:Breast can-cer has the highest current and projected burden in terms of both incidence and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs).The burden of breast,ovarian,and endometrial cancers is projected to increase,requiring interventions to address this rising burden.While the burden of cervical cancer is declining,screening and prevention policies still warrant further development.