基于逻辑回归算法的砂土液化判别概率模型分析与应用OA
Study on the probabilistic assessment model of sand liquefaction based on logistic regression algorithm
极端地震事件频发,强震作用导致的砂土液化问题越来越得到重视.液化可能性判别是研究砂土液化问题的重要工作之一.本文结合统计的现场液化调查案例,基于逻辑回归算法建立了一种砂土液化判别概率模型,通过与确定性液化判别方法进行对比,验证了模型的有效性,并探究了部分参数对液化判别结果的影响.结果表明:本文建立的砂土液化判别概率模型对液化、非液化案例的回判成功率分别为85.70%,82.50%;对验证集的判别成功率达88.00%、72.00%,具有良好的判别成功率,在应用本文模型进行砂土液化可能性判别时,通过细粒含量修正系数、上覆应力修正系数、上覆有效应力校正系数、震级影响系数等对现场液化调查案例数据进行修正,可增加砂土液化可能性判别的准确性.同时模型可给出具体的判别公式,未来纳入新样本后还可结合各参数修正对模型进行改进.
Sand liquefaction caused by strong earthquakes is receiving increasing attention due to the frequency of extreme seismic events.The liquefaction possibility assessment is the primary task in the study of sand liquefaction.In this paper,a probability assessment model is established based on the field investigation of liquefaction cases,com-bined with the knowledge of probability statistics and logistic regression algorithm.The effectiveness of the model is verified by comparing with the existing deterministic liquefaction assessment methods.Furthermore,the parameters analysis affecting the liquefaction assessment results is also conducted.The results show that the liquefaction discrimi-nation model established in this paper has a success rate of 85.70%and 82.50%for rejudging the liquefaction and non-liquefaction cases;and a success rate of 88.00%and 72.00%for the discrimination of the validation set,demon-strating a good discrimination success rate.The fine particle content,overburden stress correction factor,the correc-tion coefficient for overburden stress,and the adjustment coefficient for seismic magnitude should be applied to cor-rect case data when applying this model to assess liquefaction potential,which can improve the accuracy of sand lique-faction assessment.At the same time,the model can provide specific discrimination formulas.In the future,when new samples are incorporated,the model can be further improved by adjusting and modifying based on various parameters.
李建;李敬军;范猛;朱凯斌;杨正权
中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司,四川 成都 610072中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室,北京 100038||水利部水工程抗震与应急支持工程技术研究中心,北京 100048中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室,北京 100038||水利部水工程抗震与应急支持工程技术研究中心,北京 100048中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室,北京 100038||水利部水工程抗震与应急支持工程技术研究中心,北京 100048中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室,北京 100038||水利部水工程抗震与应急支持工程技术研究中心,北京 100048
建筑与水利
地震砂土液化逻辑回归算法液化判别概率模型
earthquakesand liquefactionlogistic regression algorithmliquefaction assessmentprobability model
《中国水利水电科学研究院学报(中英文)》 2026 (3)
271-284,14
中国水科院基本科研业务费专项项目(GE0145B052021)中国水科院科技成果转化基金专项项目(GE121003A0032022,GE121003A0032024)流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室自主研究课题(SKL2022ZD05)
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