首页|期刊导航|云南师范大学学报(自然科学版)|基于深度强化学习的绿电交易价格预测研究

基于深度强化学习的绿电交易价格预测研究OA

Green Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Deep Reinforcement Learning

中文摘要英文摘要

融合图结构建模、时序特征提取与策略优化机制,提出一种基于深度强化学习的绿电价格预测模型,旨在提升绿电交易价格预测的精度.首先利用图卷积网络(GCN)建模交易主体间的结构依赖关系,其次引入门控循环单元(GRU)提取历史价格与外部特征的动态演化规律,最后基于改进型深度Q网络(DQN)实现状态感知下的最优价格预测策略生成.实验结果表明模型在多项评价指标上均优于LSTM、GCN-LSTM与标准DQN等对照模型,平均MAE降低7.5%,ROI预测误差下降13.2%;此外,在含噪扰动与政策突变场景下模型仍保持良好鲁棒性.

Aiming to enhance the accuracy of green electricity trading predictions,a green electricity price prediction model based on deep reinforcement learning was proposed by integrating graph struc-ture modeling,temporal feature extraction,and a strategy optimization mechanism.First,a graph conv-olutional network(GCN)was employed to model the structural dependencies among trading entities.Second,gated recurrent units(GRUs)were introduced to extract the dynamic evolution patterns of historical prices and external features.Finally,an improved deep Q-network(DQN)was applied to generate an optimal price prediction strategy under state-aware conditions.Experimental results dem-onstrate that the model outperforms comparative models such as LSTM,GCN-LSTM,and standard DQN across multiple evaluation metrics,achieving an average reduction in MAE of 7.5%and a de-crease in ROI prediction error of 13.2%.Furthermore,the model exhibits strong robustness in scenar-ios involving noisy disturbances and sudden policy changes.

张阳;敬如雪;康耀堃;李秀秀;王娜

国网甘肃省电力公司武威供电公司数字化通信部,甘肃武威 733000国网甘肃省电力公司武威供电公司数字化通信部,甘肃武威 733000国网甘肃省电力公司武威供电公司数字化通信部,甘肃武威 733000国网甘肃省电力公司武威供电公司数字化通信部,甘肃武威 733000国网甘肃省电力公司武威供电公司数字化通信部,甘肃武威 733000

信息技术与安全科学

绿电交易价格预测深度强化学习图神经网络市场策略优化

Green electricity tradingPrice forecastingDeep reinforcement learningGraph neural net-workMarket policy optimization

《云南师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026 (2)

20-26,7

国网甘肃省电力公司科技资助项目(B32708250011).

10.7699/j.ynnu.ns-2026-05

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