贝叶斯定理是法庭科学比对方法的理论基础吗?OA
Is Bayes' Theorem the Theory Basis of Forensic Science Feature Comparison Method?
贝叶斯定理被许多讨论法庭科学比对方法的文献当作最基础的理论.本文对此开展深入分析,探讨了在法庭科学中使用这一定理面临的问题,尤其是详细区分了定理中不同表示项的意义及逻辑推理难题,认为贝叶斯定理并不能为特征比对得出结论提供有意义支撑,其只是一个计算工具.如果将法庭科学比对方法建立在贝叶斯定理之上,理论基础并不牢固.在法庭科学方法面临变革的时期,更需要在理论上正本清源.
Bayes' theorem is regarded as the most basic theory in much of the literature that discusses forensic science comparison methods.This paper analyzes the problems faced by using this theorem in forensic science,especially the significance of different representations in the theorem and the logical reasoning problem,and argues that Bayes' theorem cannot provide meaningful support for the conclusion of feature comparison,only as a calculation tool.If the forensic science comparison method is based on Bayes' theorem,the theoretical basis is not solid.At a time when forensic science methods are facing change,it is even more necessary to get to the bottom of the problem in theory.
黎智辉;刘耀;王桂强
公安部鉴定中心,北京 100038公安部鉴定中心,北京 100038公安部鉴定中心,北京 100038
社会科学
法庭科学特征比对方法贝叶斯定理特征匹配价值理论
forensic sciencefeature comparison methodsBayes theoremfeature matching value theory
《刑事技术》 2026 (3)
221-230,10
国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3303702)
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