首页|期刊导航|生态学报|多维胁迫下陕西省县域生态系统健康演变机制与协同治理

多维胁迫下陕西省县域生态系统健康演变机制与协同治理OACHSSCD

Evolution mechanism and collaborative governance of ecosystem health at county-level in Shaanxi Province under multi-dimensional stress:a configuration analysis based on GTWR and fsQCA

中文摘要英文摘要

生态系统健康状况决定区域水源涵养、水土保持和气候调节,在资源掠夺性开发、污染物排放和极端气候变化等胁迫下面临退化风险,评估其健康状况及影响机制对平衡经济发展与生态治理至关重要.基于活力-组织力-弹性-服务模型评估2000-2022年陕西省县域生态系统健康指数;从经济-自然-社会维度构建驱动体系,结合随机森林、AdaBoost、GBDT和XGBoost模型识别关键驱动因子,通过时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)揭示其与生态系统健康的时空异质性;借助模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)探究影响生态系统健康的组态模式.结果表明:(1)2000-2022年陕西省生态系统健康整体呈提升趋势,均值由0.478上升至0.528,空间上呈"南优北劣"的分布特征.(2)各驱动因子对生态系统健康的影响存在明显时空异质性.降水量的影响为正向,财政收入/支出、不透水面积占比和人口密度的影响均为负向.第一产业增加值占GDP比重的影响由负向转为正向,坡度对陕北地区的影响由正向转为负向,对关中地区和陕南地区的影响为正向.(3)生态系统健康受多重条件变量并发影响,促进生态系统健康的路径以"自然主导型""经济-自然主导型""经济-自然-社会联合主导型"为主,而低生态系统健康的构型以"社会主导型""自然-社会主导型""经济-社会主导型"为主.研究结果可为陕西省分区生态系统保护与管理提供科学依据.

The health status of ecosystems determines regional water conservation,soil and water conservation,and climate regulation.Underpressures such as exploitative resource development,pollutant emissions,and extreme climate change,ecosystems face degradation risks.Assessing ecosystem health and its influencing mechanisms is crucial for balancing economic development and ecological governance.Based on the Vigor-Organization-Resilience-Service(VORS)model,this study evaluated the county-level ecosystem health index in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2022.A driver system was constructed from economic,natural,and social dimensions,and key driving factors were identified using Random Forest,AdaBoost,GBDT,and XGBoost models.The spatiotemporal heterogeneity between these factors and ecosystem health was revealed through Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR).Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis(fsQCA)was further employed to explore configurational patterns affecting ecosystem health.The results exhibited that:(1)From 2000 to 2022,the overall ecosystem health in Shaanxi Province showed an improving trend,with the mean value rising from 0.478 to 0.528,and spatially presenting a pattern of"better in the south,worse in the north."(2)The influence of each driving factor on ecosystem health exhibited significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity.Precipitation exerted a positive effect,while fiscal revenue/expenditure,impervious surface ratio,and population density had negative effects.The impact of the proportion of primary industry added value in GDP shifted from negative to positive.The influence of slope changed from positive to negative in northern Shaanxi,while it remained positive in the Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi regions.(3)Ecosystem health was affected by the concurrent influence of multiple conditional variables.The pathways promoting ecosystem health were mainly"nature-dominated,""economy-nature-dominated,"and"economy-nature-society jointly dominated,"whereas configurations associated with low ecosystem health were primarily"society-dominated,""nature-society-dominated,"and"economy-society-dominated."The findings provided a scientific basis for zonal ecosystem conservation and management in Shaanxi Province.

王娜娜;郑伟伟;韦雅宁;战卫彤;张博伦;吕达

西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌 712100西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌 712100西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌 712100西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌 712100广东省科学院生态环境与土壤研究所,广州 510650||中国环境科学研究院,北京 100012中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101

生态系统健康集成学习时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)协同治理陕西省

ecosystem healthensemble learningTemporally Weighted Regression(GTWR)fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)collaborative governanceShaanxi Province

《生态学报》 2026 (10)

5133-5149,17

国家自然科学基金青年项目(42201291,42407642)广东省科学院发展专项资金(2022GDASZH-2022010104-2)西北农林科技大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社科项目专项资金资助(2452025077)

10.20103/j.stxb.202508182152

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