中国"山水工程"生态系统服务时空交互特征及跃迁机制OACHSSCD

Comprehensively revealing the spatiotemporal interactions and transition mechanisms of Ecosystem services(ES)under China's Integrated Protection and Restoration Project for Mountains,Rivers,Forests,Farmlands,Lakes,Grasslands,and Deserts(hereafter referred to as the"Shan-Shui Initiative")is crucial for scientifically evaluating the effectiveness of ecological restoration and advancing the Chinese path toward modernization characterized by harmony between humans and nature.This study focused on the implementation areas of the Shan-Shui Initiative and quantified four key ES:water supply,carbon sequestration,climate regulation,and soil retention,based on their biophysical measurements.By integrating LISA time-path analysis,spatiotemporal transition identification,and quantile regression modeling,we systematically elucidated the evolution patterns,interactive characteristics,and intrinsic driving mechanisms of these key services.The results showed that:(1)ES in the Shan-Shui Initiative areas exhibited pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity and significant ecological restoration achievements.From 2016 to 2023,climate regulation services increased steadily by 5.5％,soil retention fluctuated but remained at a relatively high level,water supply services peaked during the early policy phase and then became more variable,and the degradation trend of carbon sequestration was effectively curbed.(2)LISA-based spatiotemporal transition analysis indicated differentiated spatial evolution patterns,with climate regulation and soil retention services showing the greatest spatial stability,while carbon sequestration and water supply services exhibited higher spatial volatility.(3)The dominant factors influencing ES evolution varied significantly across quantiles:natural factors(e.g.,precipitation,NDVI)primarily maintained or enhanced ES levels in high-quantile regions,whereas socioeconomic and climatic stressors(e.g.,population density,temperature)exerted major constraints in low-quantile regions.(4)Two distinct ES transition modes-low-quantile constraint and high-quantile driven-were identified,revealing differentiated pathways of natural and social influences.This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing ecological outcomes,enabling precise spatial management,and informing future planning of the Shan-Shui Initiative.