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AI大模型在山洪灾害风险辨识与预警中的应用探讨OA

Exploring the application of large AI models in flash flood risk identification and early warning

中文摘要英文摘要

山洪灾害是我国洪涝灾害中致人死亡的主要灾种,风险辨识与预警是主动防御山洪灾害的关键技术手段.本文系统梳理了国内外既有山洪风险辨识与预警技术,详细分析了不同方法的优缺点和遇到的瓶颈;通过回顾人工智能发展历程及其对水文科学研究范式演变的推动作用,阐明了人工智能在山洪灾害防御中应用的巨大潜力,指出了大模型在山洪风险辨识与预警中面临的数据获取与质量、泛化能力、可解释性、复杂性与涌现能力平衡、算力与并行加速、智能判断等六个方面的挑战.此外,针对性探讨了解决方案和发展趋势,提出未来应重点关注大数据治理,探究人工智能与物理模型的融合技术,不断改进异构混合并行计算框架和训练策略,推动AI大模型参数自动优化和智能预测,提升学习能力、泛化能力、风险预测能力,旨在为AI大模型在山洪灾害风险辨识与预警中的应用提供理论与实践指导.

Flash flood disasters are the main cause of fatalities among flood-related hazards in China.Risk identifica-tion and early warning represent crucial technologies for the proactive defense against flash floods.This paper system-atically reviews conventional techniques for flash flood risk identification and early warning both within China and abroad,providing a detailed analysis of the advantages,limitations and bottlenecks of various methods.By tracing the development of artificial intelligence(AI)and its role in transforming research paradigms in hydrological sci-ence,the study highlights the significant potential of AI in flash flood disaster prevention.It identifies six major chal-lenges confronting large AI models in the context of flash flood risk identification and early warning:data acquisition and quality,generalization and interpretability,balancing complexity with emergent capabilities,computational effi-ciency and parallel acceleration,and intelligent decision-making.Targeted solutions and future trends are discussed in response to these challenges.The paper proposes that future research should focus on big data governance,and the integration technology of AI and physical models.Additionally,efforts should focus on continuously improving hetero-geneous hybrid parallel computing framework and training strategies,advancing automated optimization of large model parameters and intelligent prediction,and enhancing learning capacity,generalization ability and risk predic-tion ability.The aim of these efforts is to provide both theoretical insights and practical guidance for the application of large AI models in flash flood risk identification and early warning.

田济扬;章跃芬;严登华;徐晟昊;段嘉程;李建柱

中国水利水电科学研究院,流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室,北京 100038||水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京 100038中国水利水电科学研究院,流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室,北京 100038||水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京 100038中国水利水电科学研究院,流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室,北京 100038||水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京 100038水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京 100038||天津大学 水利工程智能建设与运维全国重点实验室,天津 300350水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京 100038||天津大学 水利工程智能建设与运维全国重点实验室,天津 300350天津大学 水利工程智能建设与运维全国重点实验室,天津 300350

建筑与水利

山洪灾害AI大模型物理模型融合智能预测风险辨识与预警

flash flood disasterlarge AI modelsintegration with physical modelsintelligent predictionrisk iden-tification and early warning

《水利学报》 2026 (5)

675-690,16

国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3082200)中国水利水电科学研究院五大人才计划项目(JZ0199A022021)国家自然科学基金项目(52279022)

10.3724/j.slxb.20250412

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