考虑水风光联合运行风险的主力水库调度规则提取方法OA

Reservoir scheduling rules are pivotal for guiding reservoir operations.To mitigate water abandonment and power shortage risks in integrated hydro-wind-solar systems,this study proposes a method for deriving main reservoir scheduling rules,accounting for joint operation risks.Multi-timescale inflow assessment criterion for water abandon-ment and power shortage risks are constructed,with Monte Carlo simulation and K-means clustering generating extreme condition scenario combinations to characterize risks and serve as model inputs.Considering hydraulic,elec-trical,and renewable energy consumption constraints,optimized scheduling strategies for cascade hydropower sta-tions are developed,and a main reservoir scheduling model is formulated to ensure no water abandonment or power shortages within fixed future periods.This model is transformed into a mixed-integer linear programming(MILP)model,solved hourly within each scheduling cycle,to determine the upper bounds for water abandonment risk and the lower bounds for power supply assurance.Applied to a hydro-wind-solar base in southwest China,the effective-ness of the method is validated through comparative rules and multi-scenario tests,achieving no water abandonment in the flood season and no power shortages in the dry season compared to baseline rules.The approach consistently derives robust scheduling rules across scenarios,providing theoretical support for stable hydro-wind-solar operations under rapid renewable energy growth.