流动人口生育率的空间差异与社会保障政策支持体系研究OA

Against the backdrop of China's ultra-low fertility,the migrant population,a large group consisting predominantly of people in their prime childbearing years,exhibits marked spatial differences in fertility.Drawing on the analytical framework of"resource squeeze-environmental adaptation,"this study finds that economic spatial squeeze intensifies anxieties about income security among the migrant population,welfare spatial fragmentation heightens anxieties about access to public services,and social spatial exclusion deepens anxieties about social integration.These multidimensional forms of exclusion not only raise the explicit and implicit costs of childbirth,child-rearing,and education,but also weaken migrants' income expectations,risk tolerance,and level of social integration,thereby shifting their fertility decisions from a willingness and ability to have children towards more cautious childbearing.It is therefore necessary to take the equalisation of basic public services as the guiding principle and build a policy support system underpinned by social security.In particular,priority should be given to improving three systems:a socialised cost-sharing mechanism for child-rearing with maternity protection at its core,a social welfare security system oriented towards the equalisation of basic public services,and a social service system based on social support and rights protection.In this way,the institutional constraints on migrant fertility can be effectively alleviated,their fertility potential can be released,and the long-term balanced development of China's population can be promoted.