面向海上风电的GARCH残差耦合Copula函数的风浪联合时序场景生成方法OA

Wind speed and wave height both affect the safety and stability of offshore wind power output,while traditional studies on offshore wind power output have insufficient consideration of wind-wave coupling effects.In particular,during typhoon events,the drastic variation of wind and waves requires accurate modeling approaches.To address this,a wind-wave joint scenario generation method integrating statistical modeling and temporal structure is proposed to capture the covariation patterns of wind and waves.Firstly,for typhoon scenarios,the marginal distribution functions of wind and wave data are constructed using kernel density estimation.Secondly,based on the GARCH model,the seasonal fluctuation characteristics are extracted and standardized residuals are constructed.Finally,Copula function families are applied to fit the joint distribution of marginal functions and residuals.The optimal Copula model for typhoon and seasonal conditions is selected based on Kendall coefficient,Spearman coefficient,and mean squared Euclidean distance.An AR(1)perturbation structure is then introduced to generate temporally correlated joint scenarios,followed by K-medoids clustering and probability assignment.The results show that the proposed method is applicable to both typhoon and seasonal wind-wave relationships.By integrating Copula modeling and AR temporal mechanism,the temporal coherence of wind-wave scenarios is significantly improved,providing a valuable reference for safe and stable offshore wind power output under extreme wind-wave fluctuations.