新型电力系统负荷预测技术综述及基于数据空间的架构展望OA
A Review of Load Forecasting Technologies for New Power Systems and Architecture Outlook Based on Data Space
面向"双碳"目标和新型电力系统建设需求,针对现有研究在海量多源异构数据获取和管理、预测模型场景适应性、局部特征替代全局特征等方面的局限,对现有负荷预测技术进行了综述,并提出基于数据空间的分布式协同精细化电力负荷智能优选预测模式及架构展望.首先,从影响因素、预测场景、模型算法、性能评价指标4个维度对现有电力负荷预测研究进行全面梳理与对比分析,明确当前负荷预测面临的挑战;其次,对数据空间进行概述,阐明数据空间赋能负荷预测的机理;最后,从网格划分、模型库构建、方法优选、计算任务分配、预测结果融合5个环节和数据准备、数据管理、数据服务3个模块提出基于数据空间的分布式协同精细化电力负荷智能优选预测模式及架构展望,为新型电力系统下复杂时空环境的负荷预测提供理论参考与解决思路.
In response to the"dual carbon"goals and the development requirements of novel power systems,addresses the limitations of existing research—namely,challenges in acquiring and managing massive,multi-source heterogeneous data,the limited scenario adaptability of prediction models,and the inadequate representation of global features using local ones.To this end,we present a comprehensive review of current load forecasting technologies and propose a prospective architecture,alongside an intelligent,optimized-selection forecasting mode for distributed,collaborative,and refined power load prediction based on the data space.First,existing power load forecasting studies are systematically reviewed and comparatively analyzed across four dimensions:influencing factors,forecasting scenarios,model algorithms,and performance evaluation metrics,thereby clarifying the current challenges in the field.Second,the concept of the data space is outlined,elucidating the mechanisms by which it empowers load forecasting.Finally,the proposed data space-based forecasting mode and prospective architecture are detailed through five operational stages(grid division,model library construction,method optimization,computational task allocation,and forecasting result fusion)and three functional modules(data preparation,data management,and data services).Ultimately,this study provides theoretical references and practical solutions for load forecasting within the complex spatiotemporal environments of novel power systems.
邱敏;王阳;李建锋;张洋;牛东晓;洪华伟
需求侧多能互补优化与供需互动技术北京市重点实验室(中国电力科学研究院有限公司),北京市 海淀区 100192国家电网有限公司,北京市 西城区 100031需求侧多能互补优化与供需互动技术北京市重点实验室(中国电力科学研究院有限公司),北京市 海淀区 100192华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市 昌平区 102206华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市 昌平区 102206国网福建省电力有限公司营销服务中心,福建省 福州市 350001
信息技术与安全科学
负荷预测数据空间分布式协同精细化智能优选预测
load forecastingdata spacedistributed collaborativefine-grainedintelligent optimal prediction
《全球能源互联网》 2026 (3)
371-391,21
国家电网有限公司科技项目(5400-202455364A-3-1-DG). Science and Technology Project of SGCC(5400-202455364A-3-1-DG).
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