全球能源转型背景下的能源强国建设(二):能源强国发展与建设路径OA

Constructing Energy Powerhouse is a core strategic imperative for China to achieve its carbon peak and neutrality goals,ensure national energy security,and realize the 2035 long-term development vision.This paper establishes three scenarios for the development of China's new-type energy system and employs the GEI energy-electricity balance model to quantitatively simulate the evolution of China's energy and electric power system from 2025 to 2060 and analyzes the impacts of different transition speeds and the application of new technologies on the development pathways of the energy and power system.Results show that China's final energy demand will peak around 2030 and decline to 3.2 to 3.3 billion tonnes of coal equivalent(tce)by 2060,while electricity demand will continue to rise to 20 to 22 PWh,driving the comprehensive electrification rate to 75%to 83%.The share of clean energy in primary energy will reach 83%to 89%by 2060,with wind and solar becoming the dominant electricity generation sources(>50%)by 2040.The study proposes a three-phase pathway:steady transition(present to 2030),accelerated construction(2031 to 2050),and carbon neutrality(2051 to 2060),outlining stage-specific characteristics in energy supply reliability,energy security,decarbonization,and technological progress and identifies a critical paradigm shift in energy and electricity supply.Finally,integrated policy recommendations are put forward in terms of strategic planning,technological innovation,market mechanisms,and global governance to support the building of a clean,low-carbon,secure,and efficient energy system.