极端天气对商业银行系统性风险的影响效应及机制研究OACHSSCD

Extreme weather brings great disasters to natural ecology and human society,posing serious challenges to financial stability and sustainable development,and climate-related financial risks have gradually become an important topic among academics and policymakers.Based on the data of 121 local commercial banks in China and the number of extreme weather days in each city from 2007 to 2023,this paper explores the impact of extreme weather on commercial banks'systemic risk.It is found that extreme weather significantly exacerbates commercial banks'systemic risk and still holds after a series of robustness tests.The mechanism of action test shows that extreme weather exacerbates commercial banks'systemic risk mainly by increasing direct economic losses caused by natural disasters and weakening the resilience of the industrial chain.The moderating mechanism test shows that bank competition can moder-ate the positive impact of extreme weather on commercial banks'systemic risk,while climate policy uncertainty strengthens this effect.The heterogeneity test shows that the positive effect of extreme weather on commercial banks'systemic risk is stronger when ecological resilience is weak,economic policy uncertainty is high,and urban investment debt scale is small.The findings provide important in-sights for preventing and mitigating climate-related systemic financial risks.