全球生育率加速下降:低生育率陷阱不可避免?OA

Since 2010,global fertility rates have declined universally-and at an accelerating pace-across countries.In populous nations,this decline is primarily attributable to the"new aging wave"and a reduction in fertility intensity.Projections for 2023-2024 by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evalu-ation(IHME),the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA),and the United Nations Population Division collectively indicate that the low-fertility trap model is increasingly adopted to char-acterize contemporary global fertility trends.This study focuses on the period total fertility rate(TFR)for 2020-2025.It systematically compares projected and observed TFR estimates from several major interna-tional organizations;critically reviews and contrasts the fertility convergence model with alternative theo-retical and empirical fertility frameworks;and applies the Bongaarts-Feeney method to adjust the period TFR for 2020-2025,thereby correcting for the tempo effect induced by the postponement of childbear-ing.The adjusted results suggest a substantially increasing likelihood that the world is entering a low-fer-tility trap.