中国人口收缩型地区乡村韧性时空演变、区域差异与制约因素OACHSSCD

The construction of resilient villages is of practical significance for promoting the comprehensive revitalization of villages in population-shrinking areas and achieving sustainable development.Based on the connotation of rural resilience,we construct an evaluation system,and use entropy method,GIS spatial autocorrelation analysis,kernel density estimation,Gini coefficient,obstacle degree model and other methods to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution,regional disparities and obstacle factors of rural resilience in population-shrinking areas of China from 2012 to 2023.The results reveal that:1)The overall level of rural resilience in population-shrinking areas is not high,exhibiting a slow annual growth trend in its temporal evolution.Rural resilience is spatially correlated and characterized by agglomeration.2)The regional disparities in rural resilience and its sub-dimensions across population-shrinking areas show a declining trend,with inter-regional disparity being the primary source of overall regional inequality.3)The growth of rural resilience in population-shrinking areas at the national level and across the four major regions is unbalanced,and polarization of rural resilience exists in population-shrinking areas in central and western China.4)The obstacle factors affecting rural resilience in population shrinking areas follow the hierarchy of"risk defense ability＞transformation development ability＞adaptive adjustment ability".The key constraining factors include water resource availability,rural scientific and technological innovation capacity,natural resource endowment,rural transportation accessibility,rural mechanization development,and rural sustainable development level.