碳排放约束下清洁能源大省产业结构升级与能源消费双向作用机制OACHSSCD
Bidirectional interaction mechanism between industrial structure upgrading and energy consumption in major clean energy provinces under carbon emission constraints
基于青海省2000-2023年8个市州的面板数据,建立联立方程模型,识别门槛效应、调节效应和中介效应,探讨产业结构升级与能源消费的双向作用机制.结果表明:1)产业结构升级与能源消费存在显著的互动关系,但能源消费对产业结构升级的作用效应相对更大.2)碳排放在产业高级化和能源消费相互作用中具有门槛效应,碳排放越多,产业高级化对能源消费的抑制作用越小,能源消费对产业高级化的抑制作用越大.3)新质生产力在产业高级化与能源消费双向作用中具有中介效应.4)清洁能源发电量强化了产业高级化对能源消费以及能源消费对产业合理化的作用,人类活动强度弱化了能源消费对产业高级化的影响,生态环境质量指数、人类活动强度和清洁能源发电量弱化了产业合理化对能源消费的影响.5)经济发展高水平地区能源消费对产业高级化的作用更大,经济发展低水平地区能源消费对产业合理化的作用更大.
Based on panel data from eight cities and prefectures in Qinghai Province from 2000 to 2023,this study empirically analyzes the bidirectional interaction mechanism between industrial structure upgrading and energy consumption using simultaneous equations models,threshold effect models,and by examining moderating and mediating effects.The results indicate that:1)There is a negative relationship between industrial advancement and energy consumption,while a positive relationship appears between industrial rationalization and energy consumption.The effect of energy consumption on industrial structure upgrading is stronger than the effect of industrial structure upgrading on energy consumption.2)Carbon emissions exhibit a threshold effect in the interaction between industrial advancement and energy consumption.Higher carbon emissions weaken the inhibitory effect of industrial advancement on energy consumption and strengthen the inhibitory effect of energy consumption on industrial advancement.3)New quality productive forces play a mediating role in the bidirectional interaction between industrial advancement and energy consumption.4)Clean energy power generation strengthens the effect of industrial advancement on energy consumption and the effect of energy consumption on industrial rationalization.Human activity intensity weakens the impact of energy consumption on industrial advancement.The ecological environment quality index,human activity intensity,and clean energy power generation all weaken the impact of industrial rationalization on energy consumption.5)In regions with advanced economic development,energy consumption plays a greater role in promoting industrial upgrading.In regions with low-level economic development,energy consumption exerts a greater effect on industrial rationalization.
程萌萌;胡西武;游佳顺;史文倩
青海民族大学经济与管理学院,西宁 810007青海民族大学经济与管理学院,西宁 810007||青海黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司,西宁 810008||天津大学-青海民族大学双碳研究院,西宁 810007青海民族大学经济与管理学院,西宁 810007青岛黄海学院国际商学院,青岛 266400
管理科学
产业结构升级能源消费碳排放联立方程门槛效应
industrial structure upgradingenergy consumptioncarbon emissionssimultaneous equationsthreshold effect
《干旱区资源与环境》 2026 (6)
62-75,14
国家自然科学基金项目(42461034)青海省十大国家级科技创新平台项目(2025-ZJ-J02)2026年浙江省教育科学研究一般规划课题(2026SCG182)第四届青海民族大学研究生学科学术总论坛优秀学术成果立项资助项目(2024XKZLT-04)资助.
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