依兰—伊通断裂带北段5次MS＞3.0地震前佳木斯水管倾斜仪异常变化特征OA
Abnormal variation characteristics of the water-tube tiltmeter observations at the Jiamusi Seismic Station before five MS＞3.0 earthquakes in the northern section of the Yilan-Yitong fault zone
梳理 2013 年以来佳木斯地震台 DSQ 型水管倾斜仪观测资料,结果显示,自2021 年起,先后出现 3 次典型的破年变中短期异常,其中后 2 次异常对应台站附近250 km范围内2组共5次MS>3.0地震,分别为嘉荫MS3.1、萝北MS3.3、嘉荫MS3.5和友谊 MS3.6 和汤旺 MS3.5 地震.2 次异常均表现为破年变特征,一次年变规律消失,另一次年变幅变小,且震前潮汐因子和加卸载响应比计算结果同样出现显著变化.5 次地震震源机制均为走滑型,与该区域断层活动性质较一致,推测其主要动力源来自西太平洋板块对该区域的俯冲作用.综合分析认为,在 5 次地震孕育过程中,应力促使碰撞拼合带周边的佳木斯地区产生变形,导致台站水管倾斜仪 NS 向发生变化.因此,佳木斯台形变异常可为依兰—伊通断裂带北段 MS3.0 以上地震危险性提供研判依据.
Reviewing DSQ-type water-tube tiltmeter observations from the Jiamusi Seismic Station since 2013,we found that the station experienced three typical annual change anomalies since 2021.The latter two anomalies corresponded to two groups(five events)of MS>3.0 earthquakes within an epicentral distance of 250 km,i.e.,Jiayin MS3.1,Luobei MS3.3,Jiayin MS3.5,Youyi MS3.6,and Tangwang MS3.5.Both anomalies were characterized by changes in annual variation,with the first anomaly showing the disappearance of annual variation and the second showing a reduction in its amplitude.The pre-earthquake tidal factor and loading-unloading response ratio also showed significant changes.All five earthquakes had a strike-slip mechanism,consistent with the fault activity in the region,suggesting that the primary driving force is the oblique subduction of the West Pacific Plate into the region.It is hypothesized that during the earthquake's development,stress caused deformation around the collision suture zone,leading to the NS direction tilt of the station's water-tube.Therefore,the deformation anomaly at the Jiamusi station can serve as a basis for predicting MS>3.0 earthquakes along the northern section of the Yilan-Yitong fault zone.
刘长生;周晨;张思萌;郝永梅;马龙辰
中国哈尔滨 150090 黑龙江省地震局中国哈尔滨 150090 黑龙江省地震局中国哈尔滨 150090 黑龙江省地震局中国哈尔滨 150090 黑龙江省地震局中国哈尔滨 150090 黑龙江省地震局
地倾斜观测MS3.0 地震破年变异常潮汐因子加卸载响应比
geodetic tilt observationMS3.0 earthquakeannual anomalytidal factorloading and unloading response ratio
《地震地磁观测与研究》 2026 (1)
75-82,8
黑龙江省地震局局内科研项目(项目编号:202412)
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