黄河流域高质量资源环境治理水平测度及障碍度分析OA
Measurement and obstacle analysis of high-quality resource environmental governance in the Yellow River Basin
推进黄河流域资源环境治理现代化,是实现人与自然和谐共生现代化的关键.该研究旨在测度黄河流域高质量资源环境治理水平,识别其关键发展障碍,为制定契合黄河流域特色的高质量发展战略提供科学依据.为此,在利用扎根理论构建黄河流域高质量资源环境治理水平测度指标体系的基础上,通过机器学习模型测度2013-2022年的治理水平,并结合基尼系数和核密度估计方法揭示其时空演变特征,最后运用障碍度模型识别制约治理水平提升的关键障碍因子.研究结果表明:①黄河流域高质量资源环境治理水平整体呈波动上升趋势,其演变历程经历了"渐进起步-快速提升-低速维稳"3个阶段;不同地区治理水平均呈上升趋势,空间上呈现"西高东低"的分布格局;3大系统指数均呈上升趋势,其中社会经济系统指数增幅最大.②黄河流域高质量资源环境治理水平总体差异逐渐缩小,地区内差异和超变密度的贡献率有所上升,地区间差异虽有所下降,但仍是治理水平差异的主要来源.全流域治理水平空间集聚效应不断增强,其上、下游地区内部均存在不同程度的两极分化现象.③四水统筹系统障碍度最大,关键障碍因子包括水资源量、用水总量、全体居民人均可支配收入、人均受教育年限和城镇登记失业率等,且不同地区的关键障碍因子存在空间异质性.基于此,为破解流域资源环境治理区域非均衡性的瓶颈问题,未来应构建差异化等治理框架,强化四水统筹调控机制,创新环境与社会经济协同发展模式,以实现流域可持续发展.
Promoting the modernization of resource environment governance in the Yellow River Basin is a key issue for achieving the modernization of harmonious coexistence between humanity and nature.This study aimed to assess the level of high-quality resource en-vironment governance in the Yellow River Basin,identify key developmental constraints,and provide scientific foundations for formulat-ing high-quality development strategies tailored to the basin's characteristics.To this end,employing the grounded theory to construct an evaluation index system for high-quality resource environment governance levels in the Yellow River Basin,this study measured the governance levels from 2013 to 2022 using machine learning models.Simultaneously,the spatiotemporal evolution patterns were re-vealed through Gini Coefficient and kernel density estimation methods.Finally,the key obstacle factors restricting the improvement of governance levels were identified based on an obstacle degree model.The key findings were as follows:① The level of high-quality re-source environment governance in the Yellow River Basin showed an overall fluctuating upward trend,evolving through three distinct phases:gradual initiation,rapid advancement,and low-speed stabilization.Governance levels in different regions all showed upward trends,presenting a spatial distribution pattern of"high in the west and low in the east."Three major subsystem indices all showed up-ward trends,with the socioeconomic index demonstrating the most significant increase.② The overall differences in high-quality re-source environment governance levels gradually narrowed.The contribution rates of intra-regional differences and super-variable densi-ty increased,while inter-regional differences decreased but remained the main source of governance level disparities.The kernel densi-ty curve of governance levels across the basin indicated an enhanced spatial agglomeration effect;varying degrees of polarization were observed within the upper and lower reaches,while the middle reaches exhibited significant spatial agglomeration effects.① The sys-tem of coordinating between ensuring water security,protecting aquatic ecosystems,developing the water economy,and improving peo-ple's well-being through better water services("Four Water-related Coordination")had the largest obstacle degree.The key obstacle factors included water resources volume,total water consumption,per capita disposable income of households,average years of educa-tion per capita,and registered urban unemployment rate,with spatial heterogeneity existing in the key obstacle factors across different regions.Based on these findings,to address the bottleneck issues of regional imbalance in resource environment governance in the ba-sin,a differentiated governance framework should be established in the future,the"Four Water-related Coordination"regulatory mecha-nism should be strengthened,and innovative models for the coordinated development of the environment and socioeconomic factors should be developed to achieve sustainable development in the basin.
彭彬彬;陈红;陈甄妮;杜慧滨
天津大学管理与经济学部,天津 300072||天津大学国家储能技术产教融合创新平台,天津 300072天津大学管理与经济学部,天津 300072||天津大学国家储能技术产教融合创新平台,天津 300072西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西 西安 710049天津大学管理与经济学部,天津 300072||天津大学国家储能技术产教融合创新平台,天津 300072
管理科学
资源环境治理机器学习时空演变障碍度黄河流域
resource environment governancemachine learningspatiotemporal evolutionobstacle degreeYellow River Basin
《中国人口·资源与环境》 2026 (4)
111-122,12
国家自然科学基金杰出青年项目"数据驱动的绿色低碳管理与政策"(批准号:72225013)黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展联合研究项目(批准号:2022-YRUC-01-0401,2022-YRUC-01-0404)国家自然科学基金一般项目"和谐共生视域下黄河流域减污降碳协同增效路径优化研究"(批准号:72304224).
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