气候变化的"蝴蝶效应":高温热浪对全球贸易网络的冲击与影响机制OA

Based on data from 163 economies worldwide from 1992 to 2021,this study systematically examined the mechanisms and heterogeneity of the impact of heat waves on global trade networks.By integrating the ERA5-Land and UN Comtrade databases,the study constructed a perceived heat wave index incorporating dry-bulb temperature,relative humidity,and population weights.Com-bined with global trade network indicators,the study empirically examined the pathways through which climate shocks affected trade network structures.The results showed that both short-term extreme heat waves and long-term climate warming significantly reduced the centrality of nodes within global trade networks,which exerted a negative shock on the networks by weakening the core status and connectivity of nodes.Mechanism analysis indicates that heatwaves primarily affect the central position in trade networks by reducing product competitiveness and driving the restructuring of global value chains.Further analysis indicated significant heterogeneity across countries and regions:the trade network centrality of developing countries and the Global South countries was more severely impacted,whereas developed countries and the Global North countries demonstrated stronger adaptive capacity.This disparity exacerbated the"Matthew effect"in global trade and increased trade inequality.This study provides insights into global climate governance and trade policy optimization that can help countries strengthen trade network resilience and mitigate uncertainty risks induced by climate shocks.