首页|期刊导航|中国人口·资源与环境|数字生态文明:数智时代破解"杰文斯悖论"的中国智慧与中国方案

数字生态文明:数智时代破解"杰文斯悖论"的中国智慧与中国方案OA

Digital ecological civilization:Chinese wisdom and solutions for resolving the"Jevons Paradox"in the era of digital intelligence

中文摘要英文摘要

从宏观历史视角出发,该研究系统梳理了自第一次工业革命至第四次工业革命进程中"杰文斯悖论"的演化脉络,并将其划分为4个递进的发展阶段(1.0-4.0),提出人工智能(AI)时代"杰文斯悖论"的新形态.具体而言,第一次工业革命时期形成了以"蒸汽机技术-煤炭应用"为核心关系要素的"杰文斯悖论"1.0阶段;第二次工业革命时期,演进为以"电气化-多元能源"为核心关系要素的"杰文斯悖论"2.0阶段;第三次工业革命时期,则呈现出以"信息技术-能耗全球化"为核心关系要素的"杰文斯悖论"3.0阶段.立足数智时代经济社会发展全面绿色转型的要求,该研究构建了以人工智能技术与碳排放(AI-CO2)为核心关系要素的"杰文斯悖论"4.0阶段分析框架.通过融合古典政治经济学、马克思资本有机构成理论、熊彼特"创造性破坏"理论以及佩蕾丝技术-经济范式变革理论,研究发现:技术-经济范式内部的协同障碍是"杰文斯悖论"形成的结构性诱因,而技术-经济范式与社会制度的结构性错配则是悖论固化的制度根源,其主要影响因素包括绿色技术创新的强度与效能、清洁能源在电力结构中的占比、低碳产业体系的构建与规模、碳交易制度的完善与约束力,以及消费者绿色偏好的形成与表达.以习近平经济思想和习近平生态文明思想为根本遵循,该研究进一步阐释了"数字生态文明"这一习近平生态文明思想的重要标识性概念所蕴含的中国智慧.研究指出,通过数字化变革能源结构、智能化对冲规模效应、融合化促进模式转型、体系化创新治理机制,能够为破解"杰文斯悖论"提供理论支撑.在此基础上,从发展绿色新质生产力、构建适配新型生产关系、培育绿色人工智能社会风尚、参与并引领全球人工智能治理等方面,提出了数智时代破解"杰文斯悖论"的中国方案.

From a macro-historical perspective,this study systematically traces the evolutionary trajectory of the"Jevons Paradox"from the First to the Fourth Industrial Revolutions,delineating four progressive stages(1.0-4.0)and proposing a new form of the"Jevons Paradox"in the era of artificial intelligence(AI).Specifically,the First Industrial Revolution gave rise to Jevons Paradox 1.0,characterized by the core relational elements of"steam technology-coal application."The Second Industrial Revolution saw an evolu-tion into Jevons Paradox 2.0,defined by the core relational elements of"electrification-diversified energy sources."The Third Industri-al Revolution ushered in Jevons Paradox 3.0,centered on the core relational elements of"information technology-globalization of ener-gy consumption."In light of the requirements for a comprehensive green socio-economic transformation in the era of digital intelligence,this study constructs an analytical framework for"Jevons Paradox 4.0,"with artificial intelligence and carbon emissions as its core rela-tional elements.By integrating classical political economy,Marx's theory of the organic composition of capital,Schumpeter's theory of"creative destruction,"and Perez's theory of techno-economic paradigm shifts,this study reveals that the lack of synergy within techno-economic paradigms serves as a structural driver of the"Jevons Paradox,"while the structural mismatch between techno-economic para-digms and social institutions constitutes the institutional root of its persistence.Key influencing factors include the intensity and effica-cy of green technological innovation,the proportion of clean energy in the power structure,the development and scale of low-carbon in-dustrial systems,the robustness and enforceability of carbon trading mechanisms,and the formation and expression of consumers' green preferences.Adhering to Xi Jinping Thought on the Economy and Xi Jinping Thought on Ecological Civilization as fundamental princi-ples,this study further elucidates the Chinese wisdom embodied in the concept of"digital ecological civilization,"a landmark concept within Xi Jinping Thought on Ecological Civilization.The study posits that theoretical support for resolving the"Jevons Paradox"can be provided through the digital restructuring of the energy structure,intelligent offsetting of scale effects,integrated promotion of para-digm shifts,and the systematic innovation of governance mechanisms.Building on this,the study systematically proposes a Chinese so-lution for addressing the"Jevons Paradox"in the era of digital intelligence,encompassing the development of green new quality produc-tive forces,the construction of compatible new relations of production,the cultivation of a green AI-driven social ethos,and active par-ticipation in and leadership of global AI governance.

孙博文;王树勋

中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京 100732||中国社会科学院习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心,北京 100732||中国社会科学院环境与发展研究中心,北京 100730中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京 102401

管理科学

数字生态文明人工智能杰文斯悖论中国智慧中国方案

digital ecological civilizationartificial intelligenceJevons ParadoxChinese wisdomChinese solution

《中国人口·资源与环境》 2026 (4)

1-10,10

国家自然科学基金青年项目"中国清洁生产环境规制的减污降碳协同效应、机制与路径研究"(批准号:72303239)中国社会科学院习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究阐释工程重点项目"生态文明3.0:数字生态文明标识性概念与三重逻辑研究"(批准号:2026XYZD09)中国社会科学院智库基础研究项目"数智技术的'碳排放悖论':历史逻辑、生成机制与策略应对"(批准号:2025-JZ-22).

10.12062/cpre.20251208

评论