基于PLUS-InVEST模型的黑龙江省生态系统产水量时空差异分析OA

[Objective]This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of water production services in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2030,revealing the driving mechanisms behind water production in the region to promote sustainable water resource management.[Methods]Based on the PLUS and InVEST models'water production modules,the research examines the relationship between spatiotemporal changes in water production from 2000 to 2020 and land use types.It also forecasts the spatiotemporal changes in water production for 2030 under three scenarios:natural development,ecological protection,and farmland protection,while employing GeoDetector and Geoda models to analyze the driving factors behind the spatiotemporal evolution of water production in Heilongjiang.[Results](1)The results indicate a year-on-year increase in water production in Heilongjiang from 2000 to 2020,rising from 480.86×108 m3 to 1221.95×108 m3.The spatial distribution pattern of total water production across the years shows similarities,generally exhibiting a characteristic of"high in the east and west,low in the north,south,and central regions."(2)The scenario simulation results indicate that,compared with 2020,water yield in Heilongjiang Province is projected to decrease by 24.01×108 m3 under the natural development scenario and by 30.33×108 m3 under the ecological protection scenario,while it is expected to increase by 0.3×108 m3 under the cultivated land protection scenario by 2030.Among the three scenarios,only the cultivated land protection scenario can reverse the declining trend of water yield.Under this scenario,the cultivated land area is projected to reach 206108.2 km2 by 2030,accounting for 45.54%of the total area of Heilongjiang Province,thereby effectively ensuring the land demand for food security.(3)land use type is identified as the primary driving factor for changes in water production,with the strongest explanatory power found in the interaction between land use type and precipitation.[Conclusions]The findings of this study provide an important theoretical foundation for implementing policies focused on farmland protection in Heilongjiang Province,thereby safeguarding food stability and advancing economic growth while supporting environmental conservation.