气候变化对马铃薯甲虫全球潜在地理分布的影响OA

[Aim]Global warming affects the geographical distribution patterns of invasive species.The Colorado potato beetle,Lep-tinotarsa decemlineata Say,is a quarantine pest causing substantial economic losses in global agricultural production.Studying its po-tential distribution dynamics under future climate change holds critical implications for the early monitoring,warning,and the devel-opment of control strategies for this pest.[Method]A parameter-optimized MaxEnt model was developed integrating 2 113 global distribution records and 8 key environmental variables to predict the global potential geographic distribution of L.decemlineata under the near-current(1970-2000)and future climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)across two periods(2021-2040 and 2041-2060).[Result]The mean temperature of coldest quarter(bio11)and precipitation of driest month(bio14)were identified as the dominant environmental variables shaping the potential distribution of L.decemlineata.Currently,highly suitable habitats are primarily concentrated in North America,Europe,and parts of Asia.Under SSP1-2.6,the potential distribution exhibi-ted a trend of initial increase followed by decrease,while under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,the trend was initial decrease followed by increase,with the peak occurring during 2021-2040 under SSP5-8.5.[Conclusion]Environmental factors,primarily bio11 and bio14,collectively shape the boundaries of the potential geographic distribution of L.decemlineata.North America,Europe,and parts of Asia,South America,Oceania,and Africa consistently remain highly suitable habitats.Climate change is accelerating the expansion of this insect towards higher latitudes.The findings provide a scientific basis for formulating cross-border quarantine poli-cies and early warning and control strategies against L.decemlineata.