城市暴雨洪涝灾害动力学机制及其防控关键技术OA
Dynamic mechanisms of urban flooding and key prevention technologies
气候变化引发极端降雨增多与城市化水文效应叠加,加剧城市洪涝灾害向趋多、趋强、趋广方向发展.为了解析自然-社会-工程耦合背景下城市洪涝灾害防控面临的技术需求,本文系统梳理了当前城市洪涝灾害防控面临的主要挑战,揭示了城市洪涝灾害动力学机制,提出了灾害防控关键技术.结果表明,城市洪涝风险不确定性增加、城市洪涝风险管控中自然与社会耦合机制认识不足、承灾体受灾防控标准不明以及灾害链精准防控技术欠缺,是当前洪涝灾害防控所面临的主要挑战;城市洪涝灾害动力学机制是城市洪涝水动力、承灾体失稳破坏、社会系统响应、灾害链级联传递等之间相互作用与映射的结果.从工程技术和政策管理角度,提出涵盖暴雨预警与洪涝模拟、承灾体失稳智能判别、灾害链智能阻断、防灾韧性提升等灾害防控关键技术,给出了适宜的策略、途径和措施.本文厘清了城市洪涝灾害系统中"自然-社会-工程"多系统耦合的协同机制,研究结果可为城市洪涝灾害防控提供理论和技术支撑.
The intensification of extreme precipitation due to climate change coupled with the hydrological effects of urbanization,has exacerbated urban flood disasters,making them more frequent,severe,and widespread.To address the technical demands for urban flood prevention and control under the coupled natural-social-engineering context,this paper systematically reviews the primary challenges currently faced in urban flood disaster manage-ment,elucidates the dynamic mechanisms of urban flood disasters,and proposes key technologies for disaster preven-tion and control.The findings reveal that the key challenges in urban flood disaster management encompass:(1)increased uncertainty in urban flood risk;(2)insufficient understanding of the coupled natural-social mechanisms in urban flood risk governance;(3)ambiguous or absent regulatory standards for protecting and managing hazard-affected populations and infrastructures;and(4)a lack of precise technologies for disrupting disaster chains.The dynamic mechanisms of urban flood disasters arise from the interactions and mappings among urban flood hydrody-namics,the instability and failure of hazard-affected bodies,social system responses,and the cascade transmission of disaster chains.From the perspectives of engineering technology and policy management,key technologies for disaster prevention and control are proposed,covering aspects such as storm warning and flood simulation,intelli-gent identification of instability of hazard-affected bodies,intelligent interruption of disaster chains,and enhance-ment of disaster resilience,along with appropriate strategies,approaches,and measures.This study clarifies the syn-ergistic mechanisms of the coupled"natural-social-engineering"system in urban flood disasters.The findings offer theoretical and technical support for urban flood disaster prevention and control.
徐宗学;卢兴超
北京师范大学 水科学研究院,北京 100875||城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京 100875北京师范大学 水科学研究院,北京 100875||城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京 100875
建筑与水利
城市洪涝灾害动力学机制洪涝水动力承灾体系统动力学灾害链
urban flood disasterdynamic mechanismflood hydrodynamicdisaster-affected bodysystem dynam-icsdisaster chain
《水利学报》 2026 (4)
483-497,509,16
国家自然科学基金重点项目(52239003)
评论